Not a Referendum on Obama

It looks fairly certain that Democrat Creigh Deeds will lose on Tuesday, and with his loss, the Democrats will relinquish their 8 year hold on the Virginia Governors mansion. Most of the talking heads in Washington claim that the responsibility for the inevitable Deeds loss lies at the feet of President Obama. They reason that Obama’s unpopularity, like an anchor, helped pull Deeds down. Some even suggest that this election is a referendum on Obama’s first year in office - a vote of no confidence if you will.

However, according to a recent Washington Post poll seven in 10 Virginia voters say their views of President Obama will not be a factor in their choice for governor. The Post poll suggests that those who say Obama is a factor in how they will vote are about evenly divided between those who say their vote will be motivated by their desire to express support for the president and those who want to voice opposition to him.
The fact is Deeds will lose because he ran a negative, issue less campaign, and rather than display leadership and take positions, he instead opted to tell voters that he would appoint commissions, and that, “all things are on the table.” Deeds lack of a message, and the fact the Bob McDonnell is a great candidate are the biggest factors in his defeat, not what is going on in Washington.

Now it is true that over the last 30 years the party of the president has lost the governor's mansion, and it is true that the political winds coming out of Washington have not been favorable to Deeds. Since last year’s election the Obama magic has worn off. He is pushing unpopular positions such as health care reform, which includes billions in new spending and more Federal power, cap and trade, and most Virginians now see him as simply another liberal politician. So perhaps there is a more favorable view towards Republicans in the air. But Deeds still could have won this race.

How bad has the Deeds campaign been? Well, I have been following Virginia politics for 20 years and frankly the only gubernatorial campaign that rivals the hapless Deeds campaign would be the Mary Sue Terry campaign in 1993. That year Terry barely got 40 percent of the vote, I think Deeds will do slightly better on Tuesday, but like Terry, Deeds failed to give voters reasons, or a reason, to vote for him.

In June it looked like maybe Deeds had a chance, however, after he won the Democrat nomination he immediately started to attack Bob McDonnell. He made a big mistake by attacking McDonnell over a 20 year old college paper, while failing to come up with a transportation plan. Instead of a plan he promised Virginians a “blue ribbon commission”, to make recommendations. To many voters this is an abdication of leadership. Voters wanted to know what he would do, not that he would leave the details to others, and then sign on to what they came up with.

Deeds said he would sign a tax increase, but wouldn’t push for it, he said he would he was against the public option on healthcare, but wouldn’t commit to pulling Virginia out of such a plan. He claimed he was in favor of ‘right to work’, but wouldn’t speak out against card check legislation which is now before the Congress.

Deeds tried to portray McDonnell as an ultra conservative, out of the mainstream, and dangerous. These attacks backfired, because the people of Virginia didn’t buy that portrayal, and as a result developed a distrust of Deeds. McDonnell is bright, articulate and is a conservative, who offers solutions that appeal to suburban voters.

McDonnell will win on Tuesday because Virginians view him as the more effective leader, more honest and more in line with their values.
You can blame Obama for the mess in Washington, but not for Creigh Deeds.

Fairfax County Republicans Planning Huge GOTV Rally

We need you to RSVP RIGHT NOW to the Fairfax GOTV Rally at Interstate Van Lines on Saturday, October 31st starting at 8:30 AM.

Please do this by clicking the link below. It is absolutely critical that we have a tremendous turnout to support Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling, Ken Cuccinelli, and our House candidates. This event launches our 72-Hour GOTV Operation. In addition, we have a special guest speaker Governor Haley Barbour (R-MS).

Deeds Chooses to go Down In a Blaze of Mud

I kind of thought Deeds would want to lose with class, but instead he has decided to throw some more mud on his way down to political oblivion. Instead of talking about what he wants to do if elected Governor, Deeds is now running ads claiming that McDonnell's transportation plan is 'Bogus'(a word that no adult should use, rather it should be forever reserved for teenagers).

A new VCU poll finds McDonnell's lead has grown to 18 points. The poll finds 54 perfect of likely voters support or lean to McDonnell, 36 percent support or lean to Deeds.

The survey includes 871 registered voters and 625 likely voters. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minutes 4-percentage points for all adults and registered voters, respectively, and plus or minus 5-percentage points for likely voters.

Obama Stumps for Deeds

With less than a week left before Virginians pick a new Governor, President Obama came to Norfolk yesterday to stump for Creigh Deeds. Looking for last minute votes Obama told his fellow Democrats not to despair, that despite the polls showing Deeds trailing by double digits there was still time for Deeds to come back.

Deeds has still not solidified his base, and at this late into the campaign that is a serious problem. Frankly Democrats are not inspired by Deeds, and a low Democrat turnout next Tuesday could not only sink Deeds, but Democrats down ballot as well.

We shall see.

Photo by Times-Dispatch

Is Deeds Done?

When I was a kid there was a popular expression, “The opera ain’t over til the fat lady sings.” Well, in the case of the Virginia gubernatorial race, it ain’t over yet, but the fat lady is certainly in costume and warming up. And while it doesn’t look good for Deeds, who is behind by about ten points according to the latest realclearpolitics average, he still has at least a chance. However, his main problems at this point is that he has still not found a message which might resonate with Virginia voters, and many prominent Democrats, including the White House are already writing him off.

Deeds likes to compare himself to Harry Truman, the slow talking, inarticulate former President, who was famous for his plain speaking, and his comeback in the 1948 presidential election. Like Deeds virtually everybody wrote him off, and if Deeds wins in November it will be an upset on par with Truman’s reelection. In making the case for Deeds many point to his come from behind victory in the primary as a reason not to count him out. They also point out that Deeds trailed badly to McDonnell 4 years ago in their race for Attorney General and almost won, coming up short by less than one half of one percent.

However, both those cases are very different from today. In the primary Deeds was in a three way race, with weak opponents, who ignored Deeds and attacked each other. Indeed, Moran and McAuliffe spent much of the campaign tearing down each other while leaving Deeds unscathed, perhaps thinking that he was no threat. Also, Virginia Democrats were undecided until the end when the Post endorse him, and many became convinced that Deeds was the most elect able candidate, in other words they may not have been all that excited about him, but they thought he would give them the best chance of victory in November. In his race 4 years ago for attorney general, Deeds did make it close, but it clearly was a Democrat year, with Tim Kaine winning the race for Governor. This year the mood of the electorate is more favorable to Republicans.

There are three main reasons why Deeds is trailing badly. First he ran a very negative campaign, instead of a positive issues oriented campaign he chose to attack his opponent, even citing a 20 year old college paper. In tough times voters don't respond as well to negative attacks.

Second, Deeds ran as a liberal rather than a moderate Democrat, he shunned the formula that worked for Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, and instead ran on abortion rights and higher taxes. Perhaps Deeds bought into the belief that Virginia is now a blue state, and running as a liberal could work. Certainly Democrats have done well recently, winning the last two gubernatorial races, and taking control of both of Virginia’s Senate seats. Despite this Virginia is not a liberal state; it is a swing state, which retains a slight tilt to the right. Instead of running as a fiscal conservative in the mold on Mark Warner, he chose the Jerry Baliles formula advocating higher taxes and more spending.

Third, he tried to paint McDonnell as an extreme right winger with radio ads claiming that McDonnell wanted to take the state back to the ‘Dark Ages’, (which took place in the 12th and 13th centuries) Most Virginians don’t except that portrait, rather, most hold a favorable opinion of McDonnell, and hardly see him as an ultra conservative. In fact McDonnell is running better than most Republicans in Northern Virginia, and has a decent chance of winning Fairfax County. By attacking McDonnell the way he did Deeds hurt his own credibility.

For Deeds to have any chance he needs to find a positive message which gives voters a reason to vote for him. Can this happen, perhaps, but I wouldn't count on it. The fat lady is almost ready.

Obama Throws Deeds Under the Bus

The election has not happen yet, but already the Obama White House is explaining why Deeds lost. In today's Washington Post, unnamed White House sources are telling all who will listen that Deeds blew it by not taking Obama's advice.

From the Post:

A senior administration official said Deeds badly erred on several fronts, including not doing a better job of coordinating with the White House. "I understood in the beginning why there was some reluctance to run all around the state with Barack Obama," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to speak candidly about the race. "You don't do that in Virginia. But when you consider the African American turnout that they need, and then when you consider as well they've got a huge problem with surge voters, younger voters, we were just a natural for them."
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A second administration official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said: "Obama, Kaine and others had drawn a road map to victory in Virginia. Deeds chose another path."

Let the blame game begin.

Photo by AmericanGrandJury.org

Shannon Celebrates Halloween a Week Early

Democratic candidate for attorney general Steve Shannon tried to masquerade as something other than Big Labor's favored candidate in the final debate with Republican Ken Cuccinelli.
Despite arguments to the contrary, the Berkeley California native Shannon was unable to conceal his lifetime perfect record on issues championed by the AFL-CIO, his heavy reliance on financial contributions from large organized labor organizations and a record of opposing Virginia's Right-to-Work law.
Shannon told the audience of Virginia voters, "I have a track record of being a pro-business, centrist, law and order public servant," Shannon said during the debate. And if you don't look at his record you might believe that.

However, the facts, and his voting record suggest the opposite.

Big Money from Big Labor
According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Shannon has accepted over $136,000 from big labor organizations in this election and more than $162,000 since 2003.
"In July and August, he got eleven donors of over $10,000. Seven of them were unions," Cuccinelli said. "That's unprecedented in a right-to-work state."

100% Rating from the AFL-CIO
As a member of the House of Delegates, Shannon received a 100-percent rating from the AFL-CIO for every year he has served in the legislature: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009.
"The notion that now all of a sudden - here we are twelve days before the election - that now [Shannon is] gonna start support Virginia's economy, that's a long shot," Cuccinelli said of Shannon's sudden conversion. "There's a reason that small businesses - NFIB - have supported me in this race."

Voting Against Right-To-Work
Shannon voted twice against a Constitutional amendment for Right-to-Work (HJ640, 2009). The amendment would have provided that it would be the policy of the Commonwealth that people cannot be denied employment for declining to join a union. The amendment would have protected Virginia's Right-to-Work statute from assault by federal changes or attempts to weaken or overturn Virginia's statute.

"Steve has voted twice against protecting our right to work laws," Cuccinelli said. "We tried to protect it by putting it in the state Constitution because of the challenges we've seen coming down the road from the federal government."

Photo by wikipedia.org

Deeds Waffles on the Public Option

As Congress and the President consider a government run health care system, many Virginians wonder how their candidates feel about the issue. McDonnell is opposed to the so called public option, which the Feds would run, and his Democrat opponent Creigh Deeds, well he is both for it, and against it.

"A public option isn't required in my view," Deeds said, according to the Roanoke Times. "I think we have to do two things with health care. We have to reduce costs, so more people can afford insurance. We have to increase coverage. I share those broad goals. I don't think the public option is necessary in any plan and I would certainly consider opting out if that were available to Virginia."

Immediately following the debate, Deeds attempted to amend and improve upon his remarks, albeit somewhat unsuccessfully:

Reporter: Creigh, let me make sure I understand your answer. You're opposed to the public option?

Deeds: No, I didn't say that!

Reporter: But you said you would consider taking Virginia out.

Deeds: We ... we ... we've got to look at all ...

Reporter: Why did you say that you would consider taking Virginia out?

Deeds: I said I would consider ... I would consider lots of things.

For the audio of this exchange check out my last post.

Washington Post endorses Deeds for second time in five months

In a move that was expected, The Washington Post endorsed Democrat Creigh Deeds for Governor - again! The first time was in June during the Democrat primary, and now for the General election the left leaning Post has thrown their support to the Democrat Deeds. The Post cited Deeds desire to raise taxes as the main reason for the endorsement this time.

The Post writes:

Following a road map used successfully in 1986, he would appoint a bipartisan commission to forge a consensus on transportation funding, with the full expectation that new taxes would be part of the mix.

The Post is referring to former Governor Gerald Baliles, who as Governor set up a panel to propose solutions to our transportation problems. One of the main purposes of the commission was to give Baliles some political cover. For those of you that don't remember Gerry Baliles campaigned for Governor promising not to raise taxes. Once elected Baliles needed to find a way to get out of that promise so he appointed a "Blue Ribbon"commission to advise him that he needed to raise taxes to solve our transportation needs. In the end, Virginians got higher taxes, and adding insult to injury still got to keep the badly clogged roads.

There is also some irony to the Washington Post endorsement of Creigh Deeds. They endorsed him because they claim he plans to raise taxes, which Deeds still adamantly denies.

Fairfax Chamber of Commerce Takes to The Air for McDonnell

The Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce is running both television and radio ads in Northern Virginia touting the candidacy of Bob McDonnell.

The ad cites McDonnell's pro business record, and transportation plan as the main reasons for their endorsement.

The McDonnell campaign has got to feel great about the endorsements of both the Fairfax and Hampton Roads Chambers of commerce.

McDonnell's latest Ad

Delegate Watts Says Raising your Taxes is the 'Responsible thing to do'

Annandale Delegate, and hold over from the Baliles era, seems to agree with her fellow Democrat Creigh Deeds on the need to increase taxes.

Watts, who could be the greatest example ever for why term limits are a good thing, told a crowd of Democrats that it is 'extremely responsible' to raise taxes. Of course it is madness to raise taxes in the face of a tough recession, but to a big government liberal like Watts it is always a good time to raise taxes, the higher the better.

Watts has been in office longer the most kids in college have been alive. Isn't it time for her to go? Please!

Deeds McDonnell Debate

Fairfax Democrats Write Transportation Plan for Deeds

Frustrated by the incompetence of Creigh Deeds' campaign for governor of Virginia, the City of Fairfax Democratic Committee has decided to substitute its own version of Deeds campaign literature rather than use that supplied by the Deeds campaign itself, if the Fairfax Committee and the liberal blog Blue Commonwealth are to be believed. In the stand-in hand cards, the verbiage is the same as what the people of Virginia hear from Creigh Deeds: he has no real plan for transportation, but will "craft" one if he is elected.

Witness this post from Friday on Blue Commonwealth:

The City of Fairfax Democratic Committee has produced its own hand card of talking points for Creigh Deeds. The joint effort is being printed and distributed for use in door knocking and conversations (like in the grocery store, for example). The Committee, dissatisfied with the hand cards and flyers offered by the campaign, put their heads together and the following is the result.
Deeds: No Roads Plan - Fairfax Dems Forced to Wing It

The new-and-improved hand card includes this prompt for Deeds and Democratic grassroots workers to employ to harass their neighbors while shopping:

* Transportation: [Deeds] Will assemble a bipartisan commission to craft a comprehensive transportation plan.

This vague promise of gathering people at a table to assess what is on the table, while everything is on the table is exactly the sort of gobbledygook Deeds spouts on most occasions.

McDonnell Takes Commanding Lead

A new Washington Post poll shows Bob McDonnell increasing his lead over the hapless Democrat Creigh Deeds 53%-44%

The Post concludes:

Deeds, a state senator from western Virginia, is widely seen by voters as running a negative campaign, a finding that might indicate his aggressive efforts to exploit McDonnell's 20-year-old graduate thesis are turning voters away.

Post poll also finds that 60% say McDonnell running positive campaign, 56% say Deeds is running negative campaign

I have said the same thing. If Deeds doesn't stop talking about the thesis soon he will get blown out.

Is Obama Snubbing Deeds?

According to an article in the today’s Wall Street Journal, there is some evidence that the White House is trying to avoid getting too close to the Deeds campaign for fear that they will be hurt by his defeat.

Earlier in the year it was thought that Obama would spend a lot of time in the state campaigning for Deeds, but that has not happened. He has only managed to drive across the Potomac river a couple of times to campaign for his fellow Democrat, and despite Deed’s requests, Obama has made no commitments to come back.

One Democrat strategist told the Journal:

"They're looking at movement in the polls and calculating how far out in this race they want to see the president go," He went on to say, "In New Jersey the path to victory is a little clearer, but I think in both cases they're making the calculation on how much of the win or the loss are they willing to own."

Obama has already taken some heat for losing the Olympics, he doesn’t want to take the heat for Deeds losing as well.

Rep.Moran Tells Deeds to Go Positive

According to the Washington Post Democrat Rep.James Moran is telling Creigh Deeds to drop the negative attacks and give the people of Virginia a reason to vote for him, not just against McDonnell.

Moran told the Post:

"We had a conversation last night," Moran said. "I said: 'All your consultants are going to tell you to go negative, just like they told my brother. And spend all your money on negative because positive ads don't move anything.' ... I said: 'You've got to go with your instinct. You're a genuine guy. People relate to you.'

"People know about the thesis -- the people who care about the thesis, they're in Northern Virginia and they read The Post and they know. But there's got to be more. He's got to give people a reason to vote for Creigh."

Good advice, but what can Deeds say? He wants to raise taxes, has no transportation plan, and is in bed with several unions.

Governor Kaine Puts Virginia Dead Last - 51st Out of 51 in Spending Stimulus Dollars for Transportation

Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine has dragged Virginia into 51st place - out of a possible 51 - in expending federal funding intended for transportation projects. Virginia placed behind all other states and the District of Columbia, earning a harshly-worded letter from the Democratic Chairman of the House Committee that oversees transportation issues.

On Monday, Congressman Frank Wolf (10th District), Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, candidate for the House of Delegates Barbara Comstock (34th District) and Virginia Beach City Councilman Ron Villanueva, candidate for the House of Delegates (21st District), blasted Kaine's slow-footedness in accessing funds already available to the Commonwealth.

In a letter that was a striking reprimand to Kaine, Rep. James Oberstar (D - MN), Chairman of the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, wrote in no uncertain terms that Virginia had been negligent in ignoring available funds for transportation.

"Based on the State progress reports submitted to the Committee in September 2009, Virginia has fallen far behind other States in putting to work its Recovery Act Highway formula funds. According to submissions received from all States and the District of Columbia, your State ranks last among all States (51 out of 51) based on an analysis of percentage of Recovery Act Highway formula funds put out to bid, under contract and underway.

"As of August 31, Virginia had begun construction of projects totaling only 17 percent of the State's funding.

"I strongly urge you to refocus your efforts to implement the Recovery Act and use the available funds to create and sustain family-wage jobs. These jobs are critical to Virginia's and the nation's long-term economic growth."

Oberstar pointed out that Kaine had been warned in August that Virginia was falling behind other states.

Did Deeds Fall for a Trap?

This may sound too Machiavellian for most of you, but I am starting to wonder if the release of Bob McDonnell's college thesis was simply a cleverly designed trap which the hapless Creigh Deeds fell into. That is trap Deeds into talking about something which would ultimately hurt is campaign. I can hear the laughter, but think about it, McDonnell chose to release the thesis, and one could argue that the Deeds campaign decision to make an issue out of it is actually hurting Deeds.

Conventional wisdom would say McDonnell was simply trying to put his spin on the thesis which was bound to get out. But I am not so sure it would have gotten out. I doubt anyone in opposition research, or with the Washington Post, would have decided to wade through a hundred page thesis, written twenty years ago, in the hopes of finding some damning quotes. Most would conclude who cares about his college papers.

In any event, after reading about the existence of the thesis in the Washington Post the Deeds campaign decided to make it the centerpiece of their campaign. Shouldn't the fact that McDonnell first brought up the paper have raised a red flag with state Democrats? Shouldn't they have wondered, why are we in effect using information given to us by the Republican candidate?

The Deeds campaign may think that the issue of the thesis has helped them cut McDonnell's lead, but recent polls may suggest the opposite.

It is true that most polls show that since the summer Deeds has made up great ground, but it was inevitable that in such a politically divided state there would be some inevitable tightening - indeed most pundits expected a virtually even race by labor day. Deeds gains owe little to the McDonnell's thesis, rather many Democrat leaning voters have just naturally come home. This was to be expected.

However, since Deeds has been talking about the thesis he has lost 7 points according to a recent Rasmussen poll, and two points according to survey USA.

How does the paper hurt Deeds? Every time Deeds talks about the thesis he is not talking about issues that the people of Virginia care about. And in my opinion many, if not most Virginians, feel it is inherently unfair to use someone's 20 year old college paper against them. In fact Deeds talking about a 20 year old college paper turns off more voters. Voters may wonder, why is this being talked about, when the economy is in the tank?

Was the release of the paper a trap? I doubt it, but Deeds talking about it can only hurt his chances in November. My guess is that soon Deeds will drop the subject, and all reference to the paper will be removed from his ads.

Photo by tricities.com