Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Rubio's Big Night

No doubt it was a big win for Ted Cruz with 28 percent in last night's Iowa caucuses. It was a must win for him. And he pulled it off. In fact if he had lost Iowa his campaign might have collapsed. In some ways Iowa is a good state for Cruz. It is evangelical and socially conservative, while it may not be representative of the country or even representative of the Republican Party, it is Cruz country.

However, in some ways, and in terms of possible momentum, I think Rubio was the biggest winner last night.

Rubio out performed all pre election polls. I believe in the last Des Moines register poll Rubio polled at 15 percent. Throughout the fall he never broke single digits. On election night he got 23 percent, within one point of Trump at number three. Rubio closed so fast that if the election took place next week he might have won.

I think Rubio goes forward with great momentum. I think Jeb Bush will drop out and the little support he has will go to Rubio. In effect Rubio becomes the so called "establishment candidate."

As for Trump I think he is in serious trouble, not so much because he under performed pre election polls, but because Republican voters are now scrutinizing him! Despite the best efforts of the conservative talk radio industry, that is Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin et al. Trump is being exposed as a fraud, that is not a conservative.

Trump went into Tuesday night with a five-point lead and lost by four points. Perhaps skipping the final debate was a mistake.

I will make a prediction for you. Trump does not win a single state.

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